The Likely — Not Inevitable — Nominee

found online by Raymond

 
From Infidel753:

I don’t have a preferred candidate for the Democratic nomination yet (it’s way too early), but if I had to make a prediction today, I’d say that Biden will probably get it. This isn’t just based on his huge current lead in polls of Democrats. One can point to many earlier instances where the clear front-runner so long before the actual primaries didn’t get the nomination. However, Electoral-Vote today made this point:

The Democrats’ problem is that collectively they appeal to far more than half the voters, but individually they don’t. While Sanders is strong with blue-collar men, he is extremely weak with blacks. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) does great with blacks, but very poorly with blue-collar men. Elizabeth Warren does well with college-educated suburban women, but is nowhere with blue-collar men or blacks. Pete Buttigieg is the choice of many millennials, but is not so hot with Latinos. The only candidate who seems to do reasonably well with all Democratic constituencies (and who is hated by none) is Biden. In the end, this may make him the most acceptable compromise candidate.

This could help explain why, while polls show several Democrats beating Trump in key states, they almost always show Biden doing so by the largest margin (Quinnipiac even has him four points ahead of Trump in Texas). Polls of the general election ask voters to envisage a candidate as already being the nominee and potentially becoming President. Black voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Sanders, or blue-collar voters’ suspicion of Warren, etc., may well dampen support in such a scenario. But every major group in our coalition would turn out for Biden.

This may also account for his higher perceived “electability”, a word which it has recently become fashionable to disdain.

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