found online by Raymond
From Jonathan Bernstein:
History indicates that attacking Iran wouldn’t help the president politically, regardless of how the war goes.
If Donald Trump is currently wondering about the potential domestic political effects of a U.S. war in Iran, the answer is pretty clear: Don’t do it.
It’s certainly possible that Trump could benefit from a “rally around the flag” effect if war breaks out. But it’s by no means a sure thing. Political scientists have found that, as Richard Skinner put it: “Usually the rally-round-the-flag effect requires opposite-party elites to embrace the war (or at least not criticize it).” What’s important about that finding is what it doesn’t include.