From Ted McLaughlin at jobsanger:
Ohio’s House District 12 is still too close for most news agencies to call (thanks to outstanding provisional ballots), but the Republican candidate (who leads by less than one percentage point) looks to be the likely winner. Regardless of which candidate wins, the same two candidates will face off again in November.
Many Democrats had their heart set on winning that race, and the loss was disappointing. But they should also be encouraged by the result. They came within 1 point of taking a district that was rated a +14 for Republicans — and which Trump had carried by 11 points in 2016.
It continues a trend that has happened since 2016 that has Democrats cutting sharply into Republican advantages. That is illustrated in the chart above (from fivethirtyeight.com). It shows that in the races so far, Democrats have seen a shift of between 3 and 23 points in their favorite. The average shift toward Democrats is 16 points.
The Democrats currently have 193 seats in the House of Representatives. They would need 218 seats to take over the House — an increase of 25 seats. Can it be done?