From Jonathan Bernstein:
If Trump’s explicit claim of responsibility isn’t enough, then surely his opposition to the Democrats’ bills aimed at keeping the lights on while negotiations continue is a pretty clear indication that he wants the shutdown. And presumably he wants it because he thinks it will increase his negotiating leverage.
Trouble is, Trump and other Republicans who want the shutdown should also be those who want it to be painful, and they should be emphasizing how terrible the consequences of a closed government can be. If the reason for shutting down the government is to win leverage, then embrace it.
But that’s not what’s happening. Democrats are the ones constantly emphasizing the suffering of government workers either furloughed or working without pay, of government contractors who won’t get paid, and how everyone else is losing out, too. Trump and his administration that are downplaying the effects. But if they are correct, then why should Democrats accept a worse deal than the one they had already negotiated back when they didn’t yet have a House majority?
The answer might be that the side that caused government closures is always going to be the one that takes more blame for the effects. If that’s the case, however, it’s a good reason to never shut down the government as a negotiating ploy, because it’s certain to backfire.