found online by Raymond
From Jonathan Bernstein at BloombergView:
General-election debates rarely cause major changes in voters’ choices. That’s what political scientists believe for the most part. Yet after the first presidential debate, on Sept. 26, Hillary Clinton moved back into a strong lead over Donald Trump. Indeed, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, her chances of winning bottomed out on that very day (at 55 percent), and have increased steadily ever since.
So was the first debate a true game changer?
Probably not.