In the movie The Counselor, a lawyer sees an opportunity for quick money. But things go awry. A man is dead, a shipment is missing, and he finds himself accused by dangerous people.
His friend is not optimistic about his chances.
I am perfectly willing to believe you had nothing to do with this but I am not the party you need to convince.
The friend, played by Brad Pitt, offers little help.
They’re a pragmatic lot. They don’t believe in coincidences.
They’ve heard of them. They’ve just never seen one.
Most of us are not quite that skeptical – or that dangerous. We often find coincidence believable.
The national election of 2016 is just one example. We start with a series of facts that would require a series of connections much harder to believe than simple coincidence. Hillary Clinton stumbles in the heat of New York City while cameras roll. Paid speeches to Wall Street banks come back to haunt her. Her technical clumsiness with emails get amplified way beyond its actual significance. Key people, one a valued friend, are lost to killers in Benghazi. Votes are distributed in just the right way in a mishmash electoral system originally installed to preserve slavery.
Coincidence.
Add to that other coincidences: A frightened FBI director, scared down to his socks by the possibility that Republicans will see him as unfair, decides to act unfairly in order to look fair to conservatives. He administers a rhetorical beating while announcing that nothing legally wrong has been found. And, of course, the Wikileaks campaign using stolen, and occasionally edited, electronic documents.
All coincidence.
I do have to confess that other against-the-odds events form an accidental pattern that is hard to ignore.
America loves Qatar. We have a strategically important military base there.
Then Qatar refuses to back a loan to the family of Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.
America hates Qatar. Damn terrorists! We support a blockade of Qatar.
Then Qatar backs that loan after all.
You know, America loves Qatar. Always did.
It’s a great honor to have the Emir of Qatar with us. He’s a friend of mine. I knew him long before I entered the world of politics. He’s a great gentleman.
Donald Trump, April 10, 2018
There is that military base, you know. Strategically important.
The China tariff on steel and aluminum was a big item.
We have a problem with China. They’ve created a trade deficit. And I really blame our representatives and frankly our preceding presidents for this.
Donald Trump, April 3, 2018
China was going to retaliate, even though the main imports of aluminum and steel came from Canada. China was way down the list. It’s kind of like a fist fight where you swing, miss, and clobber a friend who is standing too close.
One part of the trade war had more to do with national security than trade.
Part of the Iran deal to contain nuclear weapons had always been mischaracterized by President Trump. He accused Iran of having lied years ago about whether they were working on nuclear weapons.
He is right. They did lie.
That is why President Obama organized our allies into a trade embargo that pressured Iran into extreme inspections.
One company that traded with Iran anyway was a cell phone company out of China. ZTE not only broke the agreement by selling cell phones to Iran, they rigged the phones so Iran could spy on dissidents who wanted freedom from the religious government.
Nice.
They did the same for North Korea, helping that totalitarian state spy on any of its citizens who could afford a cell phone.
Real Nice!
The big concern was our own national security. When ZTE sold their phones over here there was no guarantee about what spyware the Chinese government would have them install.
I think it’s very hard for anybody to rally to the support of somebody who’s admitted multiple iterations of a crime. I don’t think that’s something that’s going to get a lot of support elsewhere in the world.
Wilbur Ross, US Commerce Secretary
Well, not so fast, Wilbur. From CNN:
President Trump calling for the Commerce Department to help get a controversial Chinese phone maker back in business. Tweeting today…
President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2018
Get ‘er done!
Now why would my President do such a thing?
The President of China, President Xi, asked me to look at it. I said I would look at it. But, anything we do with ZTE is always, it is just a small component of the overall deal.
Donald Trump, May 17, 2018
So what small component are we talking about? Maybe we’ll get the Chinese government to help resolve issues with North Korea. Or maybe it’s part of an even larger negotiation. I’ll scratch your back, you scratch our farmers. Or maybe it’s simply to get a better relationship with China overall.
Or maybe this, a question during a recent press conference.
The Trump Organization is involved in a project in Indonesia building hotels, golf courses, residences — it is getting up to $500 million in backing from the Chinese government. Can you explain the administration’s perspective…?
The Deputy Assistant Press Secretary would not answer the question because:
You’re asking about a private organization’s dealings that may have to do with a foreign government. It’s not something that I can speak to.
So! My President gets tough on China.
Then a half billion dollar loan is guaranteed by the Chinese government for a Trump project in Indonesia. Make Kuala Lumpur great again!
Then my President promises to save a lot of Chinese jobs – Make the Great Wall great again! – in a company that experts keep warning us is a threat to national security.
I suppose when it comes to national security, I do get a little sensitive about coincidence. Maybe even a little oversensitive.
For example: before candidate Trump became President Trump, his folks intervened in the Republican platform to say it was not a big deal that Russia invaded Ukraine. That seemed strange.
I confess I got a little hot when my President had a meeting with Russia’s top spy and casually revealed Israeli classified secrets. There are reports Israel’s national anti-terrorism experts do not want to share what they know with the United States. They’re not sure what our President will leak next.
And I admit I was impatient when President Trump held back for so long on expelling Russian spies as he was required to do under a law he himself signed. He supposedly was angry when he found out 60 Russian diplomats were evicted. Why so many?
After all, some of those expulsions were counterproductive. When Vladimir Putin expelled 755 of our embassy staff in retaliation, it left our new embassy in Moscow without adequate security. Our people have had to scramble to catch up with our needs.
We ought to admit that coincidence really does exist. President Lincoln really did have a secretary named Kennedy. Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln.
We can’t automatically suspect that everything involves a bribe, or blackmail, or some other incentive.
What direct evidence do we have that our relationship with Putin has anything to do with money laundering? Or Moscow hotel related blackmail? Or other election research incentives?
For one thing, we ought to find reassurance and give national security credit where it is due.
For example, President Trump did quickly arrange security for our embassy in Russia. He awarded a no-bid contract directly to a Russian company called Elite Security. They know what they are doing. In fact, the company was founded by the Vladimir Putin’s old KGB boss.
I mean you’ve heard of coincidences.
Right?
They’ve heard of them. They’ve just never seen one.
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In unrelated news, Republicans seem to love Westworld. “Doesn’t look like anything to me,” they keep saying.