From Shaun Mullen at The Moderate Voice:
I have long believed that Donald Trump would not fire Robert Mueller despite his on-again, off-again threats to do so because saner heads would warn him that the collateral damage would be great. But most of the saner heads have left the building, including much of his legal team, and the president’s behavior has become so maniacal as he starts a trade war, threatens a hot war, undermines the FBI and reaches out to Fox News for fresh West Wing blood to suck on, that I am no longer so sure. Which begs a very big question: What happens to the special prosecutor’s wide-ranging investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election and the collusion of the Trump campaign and candidate himself if he gets the ax?
Here are some things to consider:
* By law Trump cannot fire Mueller and it would fall to a Justice Department subaltern, so the question becomes who would pull the trigger?
A new acting attorney general is the best guess since AG Jeff Sessions has recused himself and, it is my belief, would resign if Mueller is summarily dismissed, as most certainly would Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Mueller in the first place and has shown flashes of independence in defending the special prosecutor’s work.
It would fall to the new AG to decide how vigorously — or even whether — to continue the Russia investigation, and whether to appoint a new special counsel. In any event, a Mueller successor would do Trump’s bidding.
* The Republican congressional majority will stay on the right side of Trump and the wrong side of history, so who will push back if Mueller goes?
You can’t turn around in this mess without bumping into Watergate analogies, but 1974 was then and 2018 is now, and while Richard Nixon faced congressional fortitude and a public outcry, today most GOP congressfolk and many senators are abject cowards and Trump doesn’t give a damn about what people beyond his base think.
Technically, congressional oversight (such as it is) related to the scandal would remain. State prosecutions, which are immune to Trump’s near absolute right to pardon perps for federal crimes, would proceed.
* But without the full force of a federal investigation, isn’t it likely that all of Mueller’s work — including those 19 indictments — will come to naught?
Hypothetically, yes. But there two very big wildcards, one of which is the 435 House seats being contested in the 2018 midterm elections. That will have a clarifying effect on some Republicans, who already are in an uphill fight to keep control of the House and would find it difficult to campaign on all of Trump’s accomplishments (sic) when they are constantly on the defensive.
Democratic candidates, with the wind of public opinion at their backs, would have a potent weapon in crying obstruction, corruption and cover-up, further hurting GOP chances to hold onto the lower chamber.