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Comment from: Tim McGaha [Visitor] · http://timsthoughtfulspot.blogspot.com
I don't want to make a more detailed prediction until after the primaries next year. A lot rides on that outcome. In the long run, it's inevitable that a center-right party will arise to counter the Democratic Party. Even if every word you say is true, this will happen, because a one-party state leaves a lot of people unrepresented, and politics abhors a vacuum.

I think one of two things likely:

One, a Tea Party candidate wins the primary. It doesn't especially matter which one. Their hold onthe GOP will be complete, and they'll drive it into the ditch. Whatever Conservative party rises from the rubble will probably have a new name, to distinguish them from the crazies.

Two: a non-TP candidate wins, and one of the Tea Party favorites -- I'm looking at YOU, Gov. Palin -- bolts the party for an independent run. The end result is about the same, we just get there faster.

There is a third possibility, that a non-TP candidate wins, and the TP helps itself to a tall, cool glass of Suck It Up. I just don't see that happening, though. And that doesn't change a whole lot either; we end up in the same place, just a little more slowly.

But here's a fundamental fact: there are sane, sober, reasonable people of good will out there who don't agree with you. They don't agree that the liberal or progressive policies are the best way to get what we both want. They're not going to feel at home among the Democtats. Are they just giong to vanish in a puff of despair? No, they'll have a home, and a voice. It may not be in a tent labeled "GOP", but they'll be there, sooner or later.
03/09/11 @ 07:06
Tim, I agree with much of your analysis, sir.

Burr, while your analysis has a lot of truth to it, I would also submit to you that one could just as easily remove the word "GOP" from your posting and replace it with "Democrat" and have the same likely truth being told.

The primary difference, in my fully acknowledged biased opinion, is that conservatives in the GOP are wanting to replace certain "moderate" members that are not always supportive of key planks in the party platform that have been there for generations.

Instead of steering the party into new territory, they are attempting to return it to what it once was.

With our brother and sister Democrats, I see through my astigmatic view that they are trying to steer the party much further to the left in a direction that has not been realized since McGovern's disastrous candidacy.

Therein lies the difference.

One does wonder where the moderate or decidedly more conservative Democrats will turn to politically with their support as the party drifts ever leftward too…
03/09/11 @ 08:34
Comment from: JMyste [Visitor]
Well, Mr. Deming, as a very very wise man said nearly a year ago:

"I would also point out that as conservatives grow more conservative and pledge greater allegiance to the purely defined conservative flags of Hannity and Limbaugh, liberals become more liberal and have already started their own worship of Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow, who also go to extremes and present their cases as retained attorneys would.

All four of these individuals show no signs of a scientific mind. They argue a point, attack members of the other party for crimes with which they appear to sympathize when it is their own party committing them. Usually when a major news event happens that could damage the reputation of a politician, those of his own party immediately start a defensive damage control and those of the other party immediately attack. The improprieties and crimes themselves are rarely evaluated on their own merits by these political Gods who direct our thinking on political matters.

If I am a liberal, I find out what I think about any specific event from the extremist of liberals, and then I become more liberal. If I am a conservative, I find out my opinion from the most conservative of conservatives, and I become more conservative. Ironically, I am addicted. I cannot wait for stuff to happen, and when it does, a cliffhanger forms. I can barely contain my anxiety until I can tune into my program of choice and find out exactly how I feel about it.

There are opinion makers and opinion consumers. The latter outnumber the former a million to one. People are not content to settle for the data alone. When learning how they feel about an issue they want excitement and a lot of it. To put it bluntly, they wish to be tickled until they have an accident. They don’t want someone to lean this way or that. They want someone to stand solidly on one side and show how ridiculous the other side is. That is the MO of extremists. The best most successful opinion shops out there are run by fanatics.

I see nothing in place to change this phenomenon in either party. And if it is indeed the evolutionary conclusion to both parties, then the GOP has simply evolved faster than we liberals have. Better for them: get it over with, so they can move on to whatever it is they or their successors will become. If the annihilation of the GOP is truly imminent, then we will laugh hysterically as we delight in the preview of own demise."
03/09/11 @ 19:56
Comment from: Jack Jodell [Visitor] Email · http://jackjodell.blogspot.com/
Fascinating hypothesis. Let's watch this phenomenon unfold. Meanwhile, one thing is certain: conservative, big money elements have captured and perverted the GOP and have now made it even less representative for the average American than it has ever been.
03/10/11 @ 06:06
Comment from: Mike [Visitor]
Burr Deming,

Your theory of the current Republican disease (which I would characterize as a positive feedback loop theory) is compelling -- it os logical and fits the facts very well. It reminds me a bit of one of the String Theory ideas espoused by some physicists: name that there are extra dimensions, additional to the usual three, which are curled up very tightly and invisible to most of us. As the Republican Right becomes more and more extreme and detached from reality, it looks as if it they are starting to disappear into one of those,
02/26/12 @ 06:58
Comment from: Mike [Visitor]
The comments by Burr Deming and Tim McGaha make a lot of sense to me, but I don't recognize the picture T.Paine paints as corresponding to reality.

Two statements he makes are wildly wrong, factually:

-- "conservatives in the GOP are wanting to replace certain "moderate" members that are not always supportive of key planks in the party platform that have been there for generations". Well, no. For example, compulsory vaginal probing of women, as proposed by far-right legislative majorities in Virginia and other States, is not a "key plank in the party platform that have been there for generations". It's one of the many radical (and mad) innovations by far-right revolutionaries that are not "conservatives" in any rational meaning of the word. What IS true in T. Paine's comment is that these far-right revolutionaries are doing everything they can to push out the true, rational, informed mainstream conservatives, like Olympia Snowe. All of which confirms Burr Deming's view of what's happening.
02/26/12 @ 07:26
Comment from: JMyste [Visitor]
T. Paine,

I missed this until just now:

"Instead of steering the party into new territory, they are attempting to return it to what it once was."

It is quite absurd, sir.

I watched a presidential debate between ultra-conservative of his day, Bob Dole and Jimmy Carter.

I was utterly shocked. They were not debating on how to limit entitlements or whether they were Constitutional. They debated about how best to fund them and which entitlements to add.

The party you remember never existed. Reagan was not a Tea Partier and I believe he would have run as a democrat if he had to ally himself with them or run against them.

They are not returning to their roots. They are inventing new plants, dirty, ugly, smelly plants. I would sooner plant weeds than buy current GOP seeds.
02/27/12 @ 13:25

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