From Vixen Strangely at Strangely Blogged:
I know there is some hay being made out of this spring grass already, but I just don’t know how to relate to May polls when I know that Barack Obama wasn’t supposed to win in 2008 according to a poll done as late as September. After McCain picked Palin. I don’t even know what all was going on at the time because I was unplugged in Reggio Calabria on a personal vacation, but as far as I know–my individual data from people I knew didn’t match the poll numbers. I thought Obama would win, and he did.
A poll in May of 1988 showed Dukakis comfortably kicking Shrub Senior’s ass. Belief in polling strength was nothing but stupid for Romney. And we all have anecdata of where polls were especially wrong.